Middle East

Earlier on Monday, the Iranian Mehr news agency quoted a Foreign Ministry official saying that a breakthrough had not yet been reached to pave the way for a possible final text of the nuclear agreement. 
 
The agency stated that the official's comments, whose name was not revealed, came in response to the Wall Street Journal, which suggested preparing the final text of the agreement in Vienna "in the next few hours."

"Given that discussions continue on many important issues, we are not yet at a point where we can talk about finalizing the text," he added.

However, the Iranian official stressed that "if the other side takes the appropriate decisions, we can quickly end the negotiations, but we have not reached this stage yet."

Russia's delegate to international organizations in Vienna, Mikhail Ulyanov, said on Sunday that negotiations on Iran's nuclear program "are going in the right direction," adding that "the final text (of the agreement) is not European, but rather common, while the Europeans coordinate its multi-source ideas."

Earlier, Ulyanov had said that he met the European coordinator for negotiations on the Iranian nuclear deal, Enrique Mora, again on Sunday in the Austrian capital, indicating progress. And Ulyanov added, on Twitter, "It seems that we are making progress .. let's remain optimistic."

Indirect Iranian-American talks are continuing with European mediation in Vienna. Several experts from France, Britain and Germany have joined the negotiating delegations and Iranian experts.

Little remains of the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China, under which sanctions were lifted on Tehran in return for restrictions on Iranian enrichment activities that the West fears could lead to the making of atomic bombs.

In 2018, US President Donald Trump withdrew from the agreement and reimposed sanctions. For its part, Tehran violated the agreement's restrictions in several ways, including rebuilding its enriched uranium stockpile.

After repeated failures to reach an agreement, the US and Iranian delegations deaded to Vienna for a possible deal; nevertheless, the recent developments don't suggest a breakthrough. 

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Today, July 26, a demonstration organized by the Star Congress called on the international community, the international coalition, and Russia to close the airspace to Turkish aircraft.


On July 22, a Turkish air raid targeted three SDF commanders near Qamishli while returning from a special conference on the women's revolution, killing all three.


Among them were Salwa Yusuk, alias Ciyan Afrin deputy SDF commander and Joint Operations Commander with the international coalition against ISIS, and her companions.


Mazloum Abdi, the commander of the SDF, promised revenge and said, "Joint Operations Commander with the coalition, Jiyan Afrin with our comrades Roj and Barin, heroines took part in the war against ISIS and rescued humanity."


The attack was condemned mainly by the Kurds in Rojava and the Kurdistan region. Shanaz Ibrahim Ahmed, a PUK politburo executive, offered his condolence to the SDF commander and said, "It is unfortunate that the brave and heroic girl of Afrin closed her eyes forever."


Turkey continues to raid Rojava and shell its population centers frequently. Erdogan's planned upcoming operation to invade Rojava and move its forces 30 kilometers deep into Rojava has been of concern to the SDF, which has asked the international community to create a no-fly zone in Rojava to protect civilians.

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He added that Iran "did not leave the negotiating table," accusing the West of creating a crisis in these negotiations by issuing a decision in the International Atomic Energy Agency's board of governors during the negotiations.

He also added that reaching a result from the negotiations aimed at reviving the nuclear agreement requires "the will of the other party above all," considering that Iran's position is "logical and rational."

Raisi's statements come after the Director-General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi announced that the agency does not have enough information to prove that Iran is building an atomic bomb, but the efforts and the way Tehran works indicate that it is moving in this direction.

"Our access is limited and we don't know what's going on with the Iranian nuclear program," Grossi said in an interview with CNN on Monday, explaining that "the truth is that Iran has closed some cameras, and we won't know what's going on until we have full access."

Grossi did not give a clear answer to the questions about how close Iran is to the atomic bomb, and only said that Iran is moving towards 60% enrichment, adding that "this level is very close to 90% enrichment, with which is close to weapon-grade," according to the website.

While stressing that "confidence cannot be built on words", Iran must allow the inspectors access, saying, "Iran's nuclear negotiations with the negotiating countries have reached a critical stage, and the scope of the agreement is becoming narrower and more difficult every day."

These statements came after the head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, Mohammad Eslami, announced that Tehran would not operate the cameras of the International Atomic Energy Agency, which it removed in June, until the 2015 nuclear agreement is revived, according to the semi-official Iranian "Tasnim" news agency on Monday.

Iran had told the International Atomic Energy Agency that it had removed its equipment, including 27 cameras installed under the agreement, after the agency passed a resolution criticizing Tehran in June.

Iran also announced that it will keep all IAEA cameras turned off until the 2015 nuclear deal is restored.

 

 

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In an article published in the Financial Times on Tuesday, Borrell wrote that the text "is not a perfect agreement," but it "represents the best agreement that I consider possible, as a mediator in negotiations."

He pointed out that the proposed solution "addresses all the basic elements and includes settlements that all parties obtained with difficulty." Borrel also warned that in case of refusal, "we risk a serious nuclear crisis."

Iranian chief negotiator Ali Bagheri wrote Tuesday on Twitter, "The coordinator (Josep Borrell) shared his thoughts on completing the negotiations. We also have our own ideas to complete the negotiations, whether in substance or form."

The agreement concluded in 2015 between Iran and six countries (the United States, France, Britain, Russia, China, and Germany) allowed the lifting of sanctions imposed on Tehran to restrict its nuclear activities and ensure the peace of its program.

However, its effects have become null and void since former US President Donald Trump withdrew unilaterally from it in 2018, re-imposing severe sanctions, which prompted Iran, after about a year, to begin gradually withdrawing from most of its basic nuclear commitments.

Iran and the powers affiliated with the agreement began discussions to revive it in April 2021 in Vienna, with the indirect participation of the United States and facilitated by the European Union.

Despite significant progress in the negotiations, the talks were suspended last March, with points of disagreement between Tehran and Washington that have not yet been resolved by those concerned with bridging the gap.

It is noteworthy that Josep Borrell visited Tehran on June 25 to meet with Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian. The two officials then announced the resumption of talks "in the coming days" in Vienna.

Borrell's compromise deals "in detail" with lifting sanctions against Iran and the nuclear measures needed to revive the nuclear deal, also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.

 
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Today, Monday, the Iranian Foreign Ministry confirmed that negotiations to revive the nuclear agreement will continue "until a good, strong and stable agreement is reached."

"The government is committed to the negotiation process as a serious option," Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani said in a press conference today, "It will not engage in emotional and hasty negotiations."

He stressed that "the basic policy of Ibrahim Raisi's government is based on the principle not to link the economy and people's livelihood to negotiations," adding that "talks and an exchange of messages are continuing through the mediation of Josep Borrell," the European Union's foreign policy commissioner.

Regarding Tehran's complex relationship with the International Atomic Energy Agency, Kanaani said, "Iran has always cooperated with the agency in an interactive and constructive manner, and has allowed inspections by agency inspectors" of Iran's nuclear facilities.

"Iran is a member of the International Atomic Energy Agency and the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons," the spokesperson explained. 

However, he considered that IAEA Secretary-General Rafael Grossi "adopted an unprofessional and unfair approach to Iran's nuclear program, especially in recent months," adding: "Grossi's views are not useful and constructive."

Kanaani asked Grossi "to observe the principle of impartiality and fairness" and demanded him "to avoid placing obstacles on the path of negotiations and lifting sanctions" on Iran.

Grossi had said in a newspaper interview last week that Iran's nuclear program was "advancing rapidly" and that the agency's ability to monitor what was going on there was very limited.

In recent strife, the IAEA accused Tehran of meddling in the organization's efforts to scrutinize Iran's nuclear activities, citing the removal of CCTV cameras. Last June, Iran began removing all IAEA surveillance equipment and cameras placed under the 2015 nuclear deal with world powers.

Grossi said last week: "The bottom line is that for about five weeks I've had very limited ability to monitor while the nuclear program is rapidly advancing. So if a deal is made, it will be very difficult for me to put things back in place with all the that period of forced blindness."

Since the Trump administration's unilateral withdrawal from the nuclear agreement in 2018, Iran has gradually detracted from its obligations and increased uranium enrichment to weapons-grade levels. 

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Assistant Secretary-General of the League of Arab States, Hossam Zaki, said on Wednesday that the issue of Syria's return to its seat in the League "needs intensified consultation," in light of the "lack of consensus" among the members, but he did not rule out resolving this issue "before or after the Arab summit."

The Arab League also announced it would hold its annual summit in Algeria on 1 November, after a three-year hiatus due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

"There are several efforts and plans led by several Arab countries to officially initiate the reinstating Syria’s membership Arab League again," the assistant secretary said.

"It is not unlikely that Syria will return to the Arab League again, but not as close as some parties and countries hope, because no date has been set for this purpose," he explained.

Syria was suspended from the 22-member Arab League in November 2011, following the start of the country's civil war. Sparked by the brutal repression of anti-government protests that same year, the war has killed an estimated 500,000 people and displaced millions.

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Also, the Turkish Army shelled the villages of Tal Muziq and Harbali in Shahba area. Ankara frequently targeted civilian centers in Northern and Eastern Syria that the Syrian Democratic Forces control.

Turkey is preparing to launch a new military operation in northern Syria. Announced a few weeks ago by Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the plans for a cross-border incursion were endorsed on Thursday, May 26, by the Security Council, comprised of civilian and military leaders.

Turkey claims to create a “safe haven” for Syrian refugees in the strip of land it tried to invade.

In a summit in Tehran on July 19, Iran and Russia explicitly advised against any military operation in Syria, and Iran’s supreme leader called it “destabilizing.”


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Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei told Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan that any military operation by Ankara against the Kurds in northern Syria would "harm" the region.

Such an operation "will harm Syria, Turkey, and the region," Khamenei said during a meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Tehran.

The supreme leader informed Erdogan that Iran would "certainly cooperate" with Turkey "in fighting terrorism," but he argued that a new offensive in Syria would be in the interest of "terrorists."

Iranian President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and President Ebrahim Raisi met with Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in Tehran on Wednesday. Khamenei hosted Erdogan as a minor, and the supreme leader sat at the head of the hall with Erodgan next to Raisi and without displaying the Turkish flag next to Iran's.   

Khamenei also called for a dialogue to resolve the Syrian conflict and for Turkey, Syria, Russia, and Iran to end the conflict together.

Days ago, the Syrian army deployed three hundred troops in the SDF-controlled Manbij, one of the cities Turkey aims to capture. Erdogan's visit is to clear the air with Syria's longtime backer.

Earlier, a Kremlin spokesperson confirmed that Ukrainian grain exports would also be on the agenda. With the war in Ukraine and the unstable global oil market, all three regional powers have stakes in what the future holds for the region.

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Russian President Vladimir Putin said Tuesday that Russia, Iran and Turkey are committed to continuing efforts to return the situation in Syria to "normal. "

After his meeting with the leaders of Turkey and Iran in Tehran, Putin added that the three countries agreed to continue consultations on Syria.
Putin said Russia and Iran discussed the use of national currencies in bilateral settlements. 

Earlier on Tuesday, the Russian President spoke from Tehran of progress in talks on the export of Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea and also thanked his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan during a meeting in Tehran.

"Thanks to your mediation, we have made progress. Not all issues have been resolved yet, this is true, but there is movement, and this is good," Putin said, addressing Erdogan in comments cited by the Kremlin in a statement.

Russian President Vladimir Putin stressed the need to create the necessary conditions to enable the Syrians to decide the fate of their country, independent of any external interference.

"We consider it one of the tasks of the near future to agree on specific steps to promote a comprehensive internal Syrian political dialogue, that is, to implement our agreement to create conditions under which the Syrians can decide themselves, without outside interference, the fate of their country," Putin said at a press conference with his Turkish counterparts, Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Ibrahim Raisi.

Putin explained that for this purpose, "our three countries took the initiative to establish a constitutional committee at the Syrian National Dialogue Conference in Sochi in 2018."

He added that with the support of the ambassadors of Russia, Iran and Turkey, as well as with the participation of the Secretary-General United Nations Special Envoy for Syria, the Syrian parties had made progress within the committee.

The war-busy President added, "The illegal presence of the US army in Syria is destabilizing," accusing the United States of destabilizing countries, and affirmed his support for the "joint security project with Iran and Turkey."

Iranian state television announced that Russian President Vladimir Putin had arrived in Tehran on Tuesday to attend an Iranian-Russian-Turkish summit.

President Putin met with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, as well as Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. It is Putin's second foreign trip since the start of the war in Ukraine last February.

Raisi expressed his hope that the Russian President's visit would be a "turning point for future cooperation" between the two countries.

During his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin and his accompanying delegation in Tehran today, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei called for the Americans to be expelled from the area east of the Euphrates in Syria.

Iranian state television reported that Khamenei told Putin that Tehran and Moscow should beware of "Western deception," calling for long-term cooperation between Tehran and Moscow.

The supreme leader told Erdogan that any military operation in northern Syria would have destabilizing effects on the region, which contradicts his earlier call for removing the US from East Euphrates because the US presence in the east Euphrates is dependent on the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces, whose main element is the YPJ, a group that Turkey labels terrorist and aims to remove them from Northern Syria in its upcoming operation that Khamenei advises against. 

Referring to the Ukraine crisis, Khamenei said, "War is a challenging event, and Iran is not happy at all because ordinary people are suffering from it." "The dollar must be gradually removed from global trade, and this can be done gradually," he added.

Khamenei said: "Were it not for the Russian response to "NATO" in Ukraine, the Western countries would later have fabricated this same war on the pretext of the Crimea... We consider that Russia, under your leadership, has preserved its independence, and the Americans must be expelled from the eastern Euphrates region in Syria."

On the summit's sidelines, Putin and Erdogan met to discuss an agreement to resume Ukrainian grain exports from the Black Sea.

Earlier, Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that the Syrian settlement process in the Astana format, sponsored by Russia, Turkey and Iran, will be the center of attention during President Putin's visit to Tehran.

For his part, Yury Ushakov, the Russian President's aide, announced that Putin, Erdogan and my President would sign a joint statement after their meeting in Tehran, a draft of which has already been prepared.

Also, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov did not rule out that contact would take place between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad after Putin visits Iran.

Turkish media reported that Erdogan intends to discuss with Putin during a meeting in Tehran the results of the four-way meeting in Istanbul on the issue of Ukrainian grain exports.

Iranian state television had quoted the Iranian Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, as telling Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan that a military strike on Syria would destabilize the region.

According to the report, Khamenei declared, "Any military strike on Syria will harm the region and benefit the terrorists."
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Syrian media reported a military force of 300 Syrian soldiers, six tanks, and helicopters entered the city through the Tiha gate in southwestern Manbij.

The deployment of the forces in Manbij is under an agreement between Russia, Syria and the Syrian Democratic Forces to counter Turkish attacks.

A number of other Syrian army troops have been deployed inside Srin airport on the Kobane, east of Aleppo, and have established new positions.

This is the largest number of Syrian army troops deployed in the region since the end of 2019, coinciding with Turkey's increased threats to launch a military operation against areas under SDF control. Turkey threatens to move its troops thirty kilometers deep into Rojava territory.

The city of Manbij is the last SDF stronghold to hold on to territory it controls west of the Euphrates in northern Syria. Ankara hopes to eliminate SDF presence west of Euphrates in its upcoming operation in Rojava.
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On Thursday, the day after he arrived in Israel, US President Joe Biden intensified his talks with Israeli leaders, discussed the hot files, and signed the "Jerusalem Declaration" that consolidates cooperation between the United States and the Hebrew state.

During his meeting with the new caretaker prime minister, Yair Lapid, Biden affirmed America's commitment to Israel's security.
Al-Arabiya and Al-Hadath correspondent said that Lapid spoke with Biden about forming a regional alliance to confront the threat of Iran.

Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid told US President Joe Biden his opposition to returning to the nuclear deal with Iran. According to a statement by Lapid's office, after he met with Biden, he called for increasing pressure on Iran to return to the negotiating table to discuss an alternative agreement. Lapid thanked President Biden for his decision not to remove the Iranian Revolutionary Guard from the list of terrorist organizations.

Lapid announced last year, when he was foreign minister, that he wanted to rebuild bridges between Israel and the American Democratic Party after the years of Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu in power.

A senior Israeli official had previously said that the "Jerusalem Declaration on the Strategic Partnership between the United States and Israel" would be "a living testimony to the unique nature, health, extent, depth and intimacy" of this bilateral relationship.

He added that the document, which the Americans have not yet called the "Jerusalem Declaration", will express "a clear and unified position against Iran, its nuclear program and its aggression throughout the region."

The path to be followed in approaching the Iranian nuclear file remains a source of divergence between the United States, which wants to try the diplomatic course by reviving the 2015 nuclear agreement (the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), and Israel, which calls for a hard line.

In 2018, the administration of President Donald Trump withdrew from the agreement on Iran's nuclear program and re-imposed sanctions on Tehran as part of a "maximum pressure campaign " on the Islamic Republic.

President Joe Biden said in an interview with the Israeli "Channel 12" on Wednesday evening that "the former president's withdrawal from the agreement was a huge mistake because they (the Iranians) are closer to nuclear weapons than they were before."

Asked if he was prepared to use force to ensure that Tehran did not obtain a nuclear weapon, Biden said, "Yes, if that is the last resort."

Not only does Israel fear that Iran will obtain a nuclear bomb, a weapon that Tehran denies it is seeking, but then it also fears that lifting sanctions will fill Tehran's coffers with money, thus enabling the Iranians to increase their support for their allies in the region, such as Hezbollah. Lebanon and the Palestinian Hamas movement.

Biden will also meet Thursday with his Israeli counterpart Isaac Herzog, who will award him a "medal of honor" for his support of Israel, and then go to encourage American athletes participating in the Maccabiah Games, which are Jewish sports meetings organized every four years in Israel.

Finally, as is customary for an American president, as Israel campaigns for early legislative elections scheduled for November 1, the Democratic president will conclude his trip to Israel in a meeting with the Israeli opposition represented by former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose relationship with Biden has often been cold.
 
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In response to a question at a press conference about how long the United States was willing to make diplomatic efforts, Biden said his administration had set the conditions required to revive the agreement and "we won't wait forever" for Tehran to respond.

In a four-nation summit, I2U2 (Israel, India, United States, and United Arab), to help tackle food insecurity and security of the Middle East, president of the United States and Israel diverged on the Iranian nuclear deal. While Israel prefers an alternative agreement, Washington works to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal.

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Ilham Ahmad, the chairman of the Executive Committee of the Syrian Democratic Council (SDC), said that the start of the intra-Kurdish dialogue is related to creating a favorable environment for talks, for this purpose, regional players should not interfere in the issue.

He said efforts have been intensified to hold talks with the parties to warn them of the danger of Turkey's threats and any military action against the Syrian people and the future of the country.

Turkish president Recep Teyyip Erdogan has repeatedly threatened an offensive on the Kurdish-controlled Rojava with the aim of creating a “safe zone.” Erdogan’s remarks are taken seriously as it has done in the past.

Rojava’s political landscape is divided between People’s Defense Units (YPG) and Syrian Kurdish National Council (ENKS), the US and the KRG have facilitated numerous talks to bring the two parties together and further stabilize Northern Syria.

As Rojava is divided, it is existentially threatened by Turkey that commands an army hundred times more powerful and resourceful than Rojava.

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According to Defense Department officials, the bombing killed Mahir al-Agal, the leader of the ISIL in Syria, which was considered one of the most prominent leaders of the organization.

The Pentagon said al-Agal was shot on a motorcycle in the Jandaris area northwest of Aleppo, and one of his close associates was seriously injured.

Meanwhile, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said the ISIL leader was traveling under a fake identity in areas controlled by the Jaish al-Sharqiyah group near Turkey around the city of Afrin.
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The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) expects global oil demand to rise next year, but at a slightly slower rate than in 2022, with consumption supported by better containment of the Covid-19 epidemic and global economic growth that remains strong.

In its monthly report, OPEC expects global oil demand to rise by 2.7 million barrels per day in 2023. It left growth forecasts this year unchanged at 3.36 million barrels per day.

Oil consumption has rebounded from the pandemic-induced recession in 2020 and is set to exceed 2019 levels this year even as prices rise to record levels. However, the rise in crude oil prices and the Coronavirus outbreak in China has affected the growth forecast for 2022.

"In 2023, the outlook for healthy global economic growth amid improvements in geopolitical developments, along with expected improvements in the containment of COVID-19 in China, is expected to lead to increased oil consumption," OPEC said in the report.

It stated that its forecasts for the year 2023 assume there is no escalation of the war in Ukraine and that risks such as high inflation will not negatively affect global economic growth.

The organization and its allies, including Russia, within the alliance known as "OPEC +", are working to increase production after the record cuts that were followed by the spread of the pandemic in 2020.

In recent months, OPEC+ has been falling behind on production target increases due to some OPEC members' lack of investment in oil fields and losses in Russian production.

The report shows OPEC production bucked this trend in June, rising by 234,000 barrels per day to 28.72 million barrels per day.

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The Ankara Prosecutor's Office has launched investigations into arresting some members of the People's Democratic Party (HDP), and security forces raided their homes.

According to Northern News Agency, 14 people have been arrested in different cities, including nine in Ankara Security Directorate, four in Batman, and one in Izmir.

The Ankara Prosecutor's Office has opened investigations on charges of propaganda for an illegal organization.

Ahead of the Turkish general elections of 2023, the HDP held its fifth congress as it is faced with a possible eventual shut down of the party by Turkish authorities.
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